Monday, May 04, 2020

Awfulness and Stupidity - the Second Mover Advantage


One of the things that used to irk American policy makers was the fact that their Asian bugbear at the time, was Japan, which had a talent of copying everything that the Americans invented and making them cheaper and, in many cases, better. The most noticeable was in the automobile industry, where the likes of Toyota, Honda and Mitsubishi ended up bruising the Detroit Big Three (GM, Ford and Chrysler) in their domestic market.

What the Japanese demonstrated was called “Second Mover” advantage and rather than inventing brand-new things, they found a way of improving on what existed. As is often said in the area of work place efficiency, there’s no need to reinvent the wheel when you can use what you already have.
There are lots of examples of how the second mover has gone onto surpass the original. 

Unfortunately, for many people at risk of getting coronavirus or being suffocated by burning forest, the most prominent second mover is Mr. Jair Bolsonaro, a proud Trump imitator who revels in the name of “Trump of the Tropics,” and has a secondary job of being President of Brazil.

While Mr. Bolsonaro has not made the headlines that the original Trump sitting in the North of the Rio Grande has, he’s had a way of surpassing the original in the things he says and does. It should also be said that while Brazil isn’t the world power that the US is, it is a country that counts. Brazil is the “B” in the “BRICS,” and with an area of 8,515,767 square kilometres, it is the fifth largest country in the world and its population of 210,147,125 it is the sixth most populous nation on the planet. Brazil’s nominal economy is estimated at 1.86 trillion US dollars, making it the ninth largest economy. It is by far and away the country that counts in South America. In the pre-Bolsonaro days, Brazil was regarded as the most benign of the BRICS. Here was a large market with lots of resources. However, unlike China, Brazil is democracy that values human life, unlike South Africa had something other than natural resources and unlike India, it was comparatively free of communal strife.

Mr. Bolsonaro has decided that these things were a crock of shit and that ordinary Brazilians were being screwed for being nice to the rest of the world. It helped that his predecessors had legal issues (euphemism for being corrupt) and Mr. Bolsonaro, like his idol in the North of the Rio Grande was swept into power on the promise to make things right for Brazil’s poor.

His first decision of helping Brazil’s poor was to allow the Amazon Forrest. Mr. Bolsonaro used to line that we’ve grown very used to in Southeast Asia – economic development takes priority over preserving the environment. In other words, we’re going to get rich whether the lefties in the West like it or not. The result has devastated much of South America, covering neighbours in a smog like haze, which many of us in Southeast Asia are familiar with and potential natural resources provided by the forest have been squandered.

When French President, Emanuel Macron called him out on this, Mr. Bolsonaro publicly announced that the French President was merely jealous because his wife was better looking, which had nothing to do with the issue at hand but seemed to satisfy a certain sense of lost masculinity in Bolsonaro voters.

Mr. Bolsonaro, like Mr. Trump had the good fortune to preside over an improving economy and so the masses forgave him. The covid-19 struck and the truth of Mr. Bolsonaro’s tough guy with a heart for the people was revealed.

While the Original in the North tried to downplay the seriousness of the virus and then started looking for scapegoats and then prescribed unproven cures, Mr. Bolsonaro has been remarkably constant in his handling of covid 19. That is, he’s been remarkably consistent about disregarding the reality of the devastation brought about by the virus. Despite losing his health minister and justice minister, Mr. Bolsonaro has decided that it is perfectly acceptable to trash the advice of his own healthcare officials. Mr. Bolsonaro refuses to stay in orders, attends rallies and likes his big crowds. As with his hero in the North, Mr. Bolsonaro’s supporters blame the “left win” media for trying to tarnish their hero.

Where Mr. Bolsonaro outdoes the original Mr. Trump is in his belief that the virus is no big deal. The Trump and his supporters when down playing deaths caused by the virus at least make the effort in giving their nonchalance a little bit of context, such as “more people are killed by the flue” etc.
Mr. Bolsonaro is quite open about the fact that he really doesn’t care about the deaths caused by covid-19 and the potential risk to national health. As Brazil’s death toll reached past 5,000 – his only thoughts were “So What?” More can be found at:


Another area in which Mr. Bolsonaro trumps the Trump is in the way in which he encourages the public to undermine stay at home orders. While Mr. Trump tweets his encouragement for protestors against stay home orders, Mr. Bolsonaro, a former army officer, has lead from the front and gone as far as to call for the military to intervene (though, as President, one wonders why he’s calling from the military to intervene, when as President, he could order the military to do so). More can be seen at:


Unlike the US, which was born as a democracy and had 200-years to build its institutions, Brazil has on the scale of things only just achieved things that make society prosperous like a government for the people and rule of law. Mr. Bolsonaro is working to undermine these things, which cannot be good for Brazil, South America or even the wider world.

At the time of writing, Brazil has 102 thousand cases and over seven thousand people have died.  It looks like Mr. Bolsonaro is trying to catch up and perhaps surpass his hero in the North of the Rio Grande. This cannot be good news for Brazil’s poor in the overcrowded favellas.  



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Maira Gall