I make no secret of the fact that I detest Donald Trump.
In his four-years in the White House, Mr. Trump promoted “Politics of the Wimp”
to a new level. Thanks to him, the world’s most powerful nation became a laughing
stock and had Covid or the lack of Covid preparations not killed off so many
Americans, Mr. Trumps rants about the good job he was doing in managing the
crisis might have been comical.
However, whilst this is my personal view, it doesn’t
mean that I think Mr. Trump is wrong about everything. He has, in his long
career in the public sphere, come up with a few gems. One only has to read “Art
of the Deal,” to realise that Mr. Trump, has on occasion got it right.
Unfortunately, Mr. Trump has found himself, once again,
in troubled waters for coming up with a gem of wisdom. This came in an
interview with Fox News on 11 October, 2023, when he criticized Israeli Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for the attacks that took place against Israel on 7
October 2023. Mr. Trump then went onto describe Hezbollah, the Lebanese
militant group, which has history of attacking Israeli interest as “Very Smart.”
Mr. Trump’s remarks set off a fire storm. The White
House condemned him and his Republican rivals for the 2024 Presidential
election literally squirmed:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/10/12/trump-israel-netanyahu-comments/
However, as horrible as the attacks were, we should
not confuse morality with being intelligent. Like it or not, the 7 October 2023
attacks were, from an operational point, brilliantly executed by Hamas and a
massive failure of intelligence work on the Israeli part. Then if you look at
the broader geopolitical implications of things, it would seem that the “enemies
of Israel” have won. Israel has already cut off water and power to the Gaza strip
and started conducting against air strikes, which have killed far more
innocents than the 7 October attacks. This will undoubtedly confirm the belief
in much of the Arab world that Israel and her American backers are nothing by
bullies and more importantly, any Arab leader thinking of cutting a deal with
Israel will not be able to (think of Saudi Crown Prince MBS who kept Anthony
Blinken waiting).
Even the branding of this conflict has shown that the
militants are actually smart. It’s known as the “Israel-Hamas” War. Let’s think
about it, Israel has one of the most powerful militaries in the world that
happens to be backed by THE MOST POWEFUL military in the world. It’s fighting against
militant group operating in one of the most miserable parts of the world.
Everyone talks about Hezbollah and Hamas being “backed by Iran,” as if it makes
these groups sound more powerful. However, let’s be serious here. No matter how
much backing Iran may or may not give to Hezbollah and Hamas, its still very
small when compared to Israel and the backing it gets from the USA and the rest
of the Western World.
Yet, despite the power imbalance, Hamas and Hezbollah
have, for so many years have managed to create “Israel-Hamas” or “Israel-Hezbollah”
wars, rather than “Israel-vs-another country,” war. By getting Israel to brand
itself as being at war against them, they have effectively announced that they
are equal to Israel and her American backer.
Sure, in terms of sheer fire power, Israel wins hands
down. Any devastation that these groups cause Israel doesn’t compare to what
Israel does to the Gaza strip or Southern Lebanon. So, I guess the Western and
Israeli argument might be – “You’re stupid because you pick a fight against
someone who can squash you?” That is because this view only takes on aspect of the
war into consideration.
Let’s look at a personal analogy. If I brought my
middle-aged obese body against Tyson Fury, who is to date one of the most
successful heavy weight boxers in history, most people would say that I had a
death wish. Mr. Fury could kill me with a flick of his fingers let alone a full
punch. So, even if I were to be given $50 million to get into the ring with Mr.
Fury, I would probably not take it – this is working on the principle that no
money is worth my life.
However, if I found a way of coming back to life and
back to full health after being murdered and could do it after every fight, I might
actually do it. Not only would I get what I want (lots of money), people would
actually start thinking that I might actually be powerful enough on my own
right – after all, I take beatings from Mr. Fury and keep coming back for more.
Mr. Fury will also start to wonder how I can keep coming back every time he
beats me beyond death.
These is precisely what these groups do. Sure, they have
no hope of hurting Israel in a conventional battle. However, years after year,
they shown that they can hurt Israel, despite that Israel is so much more powerful.
So, the question that one needs to ask is not, why they
provoke the fight which they know they’re going to get beaten in but how do
they do it? How do they work in such a way where they can, on their limited
resources work in such a way where they can damage what is effectively one of
the most powerful nations around.
The key lies in their structure. These organisations
are not huge monoliths but a collection of highly motivated individuals who
know how to use their environment, turning their weakness into a strength. The
following link provides an explanation as to how Hezbollah, which is a Lebanese
militia into a global brand:
https://www.aclu.org/wp-content/uploads/legal-documents/ACLURM001616.pdf
In the conventional war situation, Israel and its
Western allies have consistently hammered them and sure, they “win” in that
sense. However, Hezbollah and Hamas are fighting different wars with different
adjectives. They are effectively “winning” too. Sure, lots of innocent people
die but in terms of geopolitics, that’s never been an issue.
Its very clear that nothing is actually going to
change in the latest round of Unholy Acts in Holy Land. Everyone seems happy
because they all act tough and the misery complains. Unfortunately, that’s
probably not going to be very sustainable. Surely, its time that someone on the
powerful side realized that they got to stop assuming that the “militant”
groups are “stupid” because they’re “nasty,” and actually “win” and “finish”
the conflict by sitting down and understanding these groups and figuring out
how to beat them.
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