The Difference Between Northern Ireland and
Israel-Palestine is not about historical baggage or culture but rewarding and incentivizing
lunatics on all sides.
Around a week ago, I had the privilege of being
invited to a Fintech event hosted by the Irish Chamber of Commerce Singapore,
Invest Northern Ireland and Enterprise Ireland. The event was all about the possible
Fintech investments one could make in Ireland and Northern Ireland (yes, there
is a difference).
The entire event had a surreal affect on me. Everyone sounded
optimistic. The Minister for the Department of the Economy, Northern Ireland,
Mr. Conor Murphy, even said that “Northern Ireland is the world’s Number One
destination for FinTech investment.” Everyone was talk about what a great place
Northern Ireland is.
https://www.tiktok.com/@tang.li0/video/7434364448061525265?is_from_webapp=1&sender_device=pc&web_id=7274292816955999746
This wasn’t the image of Northern Ireland that I had.
I grew up in the UK in the 1990s. Some of my best friends were sons of British
Military Officers and for them, the threat of “Daddy being a target” was very
real. The guys in the Combined Cadet Forces (CCF) could not wear uniforms
outside school grounds because there was a real risk of being a victim of
terrorism. That was just in the UK itself. In Belfast, the capital of Northern
Ireland, there was a joke that went like this; “Why did the chicken cross the
road? – Because it was stupid.” It was this simple. If you lived on the Catholic
side of the street, you never crossed over to the Protestant side and visa
versa. Crossing the street was a death sentence.
The Irish Republican Army (IRA) and the Ulster Defense
Force (UDF) saw to it that this was the image of Northern Ireland. Then, when I
went back to the UK for University, the parties involved in Northern Ireland
signed the Good Friday Agreement. The process of ending centuries of sectarian
hatred began and now, as a middle-aged man, I’m attending events that talk
about Northern Ireland that are optimistic and cheerful.
I’m also old enough to remember another conflict that
seemed to have an optimistic end to it but has somehow turned into an utter “s***show,”
that is the perpetual Israel-Palestine conflict. In my last year of school,
Yaser Arafat and Yitzhak Rabin signed the Oslo Accords. Months later, Mr. Rabin
would visit Washington to sign another peace deal with King Hussain of Jordan.
It looked like one of the world’s longest conflicts would finally come to an
end.
Then, disaster struck. Mr. Rabin was assassinated by a
Jewish extremist and Mr. Netanyahu, who had built a career opposing the Oslo
accords came into power. Everything started to go down the proverbial toilet.
It looked like there would be a reprieve when Mr. Netanyahu was briefly voted
out and replaced with Mr. Barak. Whatever optimism the world might have
expected was short lived when Mr. Sharon decided to provoke an uprising and
replaced Mr. Barak.
So, how is it that Northern Ireland went from “s***hole”
into a booming place whereas the Israel-Palestine conflict has only gotten
worse? Some might argue that it’s a question of culture. The less informed would
be prone to saying that the Irish are European and therefore rational opposed to
the Middle Easterners who are less so. I’ve heard the constant argument in
Westernised circles that it has to do with the Islamic faith which encourages violence.
As easy as it is to find comfort in such arguments.
However, as comforting as these arguments may sound, they are simply not true.
Let’s start with the fact that the “real estate” game in
both conflicts were different. In Northern Ireland it’s always been a question of
whether they’re part of Ireland or the United Kingdom. On the other hand, the
dispute in Israel-Palestine is about ownership of a particular plot of land.
If you look at the following map of Northern Ireland
in relation to the rest of Ireland, you’ll notice that it’s always been the
same, even if the people have had centuries of fighting each other:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Partition_of_Ireland#/media/File:Map_of_Ireland's_capitals.png
So, in a sense this was relatively easy to solve. I
remember a school debate where the solution was considered condoms or a lack of
them. The argument being Northern Ireland would remain British as long as the
Protestants where in the majority but would eventually go to Ireland as the
Catholics reproduced in greater numbers. To get round the impasse, the solution
was to give Northern Ireland a lot of autonomy with the government in London handling
the bigger issues. It also helps that the government in Dublin is not rushing
to absorb Northern Ireland and to provoke the UK in the way Pakistan does with
India over Jamu and Kashmir.
Israel-vs-Palestine is a different story. It’s a dispute
over who gets to live on a single piece of land. Oslo got off to a start
because one side was willing to give up some land in return for peace. However,
every conflict that has erupted since then comes from the fact that the side
with more land has consistently encroached on the little land given over to the
other side with impunity, giving them less and less.
https://www.researchgate.net/figure/srael-Palestine-Map-over-time-32-The-Nakba-The-Catastrophe-The-Nakba-which-means_fig1_384801875
Its now such that the side with less land inevitably
believes that its never going to get a reasonable deal at negotiating anything
and inevitably resorts to violence because it believes it has nothing to lose.
Then, there’s the issue of the outside powers, specifically
the USA. In the case of Northern Ireland, the Americans played the role of an “honest”
broker. Former Senator George Mitchel worked tirelessly to get both sides to
the negotiating table and although he got flack for it, Bill Clinton’s
description of “helping two drunk men” get home wasn’t far off the mark.
Although the Brits got upset with the Americans
allowing Gerry Adams, the then leader of Sinn Fein, into America, it turned out
to be a good move. Sinn Fein had the confidence that America would not allow
the British to screw them. The British had the confidence that once the
American government stepped in, the IRA’s ability to get gun money from the USA
would be curtailed.
It helped that the Blair Government at the time had a Secretary
of State for Northern Ireland, the late Mo Mowlam, who was willing to push the
Ulster Unionist to the negotiating table and Bertie Ahern, the Irish Taoiseach of the day made it clear he
had no dreams of unifying Ireland according to the fantasies of Sinn Fein’s
fringe element.
With the
exception of the lunatics on both sides, everyone had an interest in making the
deal in Northern Ireland work. Men like the late David Trimble were celebrated
for making peace. So, the concept of Northern Ireland is very different from
the one of my middle age.
This has
clearly not been the case of Israel vs Palestine. The West, especially the USA,
has been far from an honest broker. Sure, some European nations like Ireland, Spain,
Norway, Italy and now France are now halting arms shipments to Israel, but the
major powers like the USA, UK and Germany are not. You can stand in the middle
of any Western capital and shout all sorts of insults about that nation and it
would be called “freedom of speech.” The moment you whisper that Mr. Netanyahu
is not a saint, you will feel the entire weight of the state upon you.
Its as if the
lunatics will win by design whereas in the case of Northern Ireland, it was
rational people who were designed to win. Look at it this way, taxes in
Palestinian territories run by the Palestinian Authority (PA) are collected by
Israel. So, whenever something happens in Israel, the Israelis will inevitably
withhold money from the PA unless it cracks down on certain groups. However,
the PA has no money to pay its forces to crack down on said groups, who don’t
play within the rules and therefore have more resources than the PA.
In such a system,
the lunatics have every incentive to be lunatics. If you’re in Israeli and you
see an extremist government getting rewarded by the West and the moderates
getting shoved aside, it goes without saying, you every incentive to be a
lunatic. If you are a Palestinian and you see the cooler heads getting shot or
ignored but the lunatics hitting at the people you see hurting you, it goes
without saying that you support the lunatics.
The system has
to be redesigned where rational people are incentivised and the lunatics
marginalised and not the other way round.