I was at a function in the residence of the British High Commissioner
when I ran into an old friend. As with every meeting with an old friend, we
ended chatting about “old times,” and for us, old times meant working on one of
Singapore’s most prominent socio-political events, namely the 2009 AWARE Saga,
which was one of Singapore’s watershed moments for activist and for many,
particularly from the LGBT (Lesbians, Gay, Bi and Transsexual) Community, a
personal political awakening. He was one of the activist on the ground and I
was the PR consultant to the lawyer who was one of the key strategists for the
so called “AWARE OLD GUARD.” An outline of the AWARE Saga can be found at:
While both of us enjoyed reliving the pride of taking part
in bringing down a group of very nasty people, he made the point that sometimes
it’s necessary for nasty people to make their presence felt because they disrupt
things.
He gave the example of Donald Trump, whom most sensible
people agree is a nasty character. The Donald ran a campaign by appealing to
the worst in people by being their worst made live. (He became a proud racist
bully). Furthermore, the Donald has proceeded to govern as he campaigned breaking
every record for incompetent governance available. However, as my friend pointed
out, he’s been a force of disruption. I’ve argued that Donald Trump and the new
era of American incompetence may actually be good in my posting
Disruptors, which includes the nasty ones like Donald Trump or
the AWARE NEW GUARD function like a powerful dose of chemotherapy. They manage
to cure whatever they touch from a dangerous ailment that arises from an
overdose of peace and tranquility – apathy. While both of us supported the
AWARE OLD GUARD, we had to admit that the entire saga started because the
people who ran AWARE got caught napping. They took their positions for granted
until they were turfed out and in a manner which they would never have happened
had they paid attention to the ground.
The Economist once ran an article on obesity. The article
made the point that obesity only became a problem in the modern era when food
became easily available (you just buy it as opposed to having to hunt or even
grow it), because the human body is designed to deal with times of famine
rather than feast (hence it takes 3-hours of tennis to burn off a can of coke).
Likewise, the human mind is condition to deal with
challenges and when the human brain has no obvious problems to solve, it seeks
them. As one Indian venture capitalist said, “Problems to do not arise from an
abundance of failure but from success.” As
an ethnic Chinese, I look at Chinese history and see a great empire that had an
abundance of wealth and success that got lazy and conquered by barbarians who were
hardy people live rough and tumble lives. The Chinese only ever got rid of
their barbarian overlords when the barbarians discovered the good life of the
Chinese Imperial Court and became soft and flabby.
Let’s go back to the analogy of the Trump Presidency. I will
be the first to admit that I believe the Donald is an incompetent twit and
whatever prosperity America is enjoying is as a result of actions taken during
the Obama Administration. However, I do believe that there are positives that
are coming out of the Trump Presidency in the shape of the awakening of the
civic consciousness in America and for the rest of the world the need to learn
to live without American military and economic protection.
Perhaps the best example can be seen in Saudi Arabia, which
is perhaps one of the most conservative societies around. Saudi Arabia was,
until recently run by the sons of the first King. Prior to 2015, the world
looked at Saudi Arabia as a very large gas station with medieval laws. Women
were famously not allowed to drive in the 20th century and were
required to be fully covered.
The late King Abdullah tried to reform the system, but he
did it very slowly. The King, as I described him, was a cautious captain ( http://beautifullyincoherent.blogspot.com/2015/01/the-cautious-captain-who-got-ship.html)
who tinkered with the system in the same way that Deng Xiao Peng did in China.
This was the king who appointed the first ever woman to a cabinet minister’s
position (Norah Al Faiz) and who built a university where the sexes could
mingle. Yet modern, professionally educated women couldn’t get behind the
steering wheel and had to seek permission of a “Guardian” to travel. As King,
Abdullah did try and create greater employment for Saudi’s ever-growing youth
population by encouraging entrepreneurship but Saudi Arabia remained an oil
economy.
Things are different now. While the country is nominally run
by the 80-year old King Salman, everyone looks to the Crown Prince, the 30
something year old Mohammad Bin Salman or MBS. As Crown Prince, MBS has shaken
up the Saudi Establishment in ways that nobody thought possible. The powers of
the religious police have been curtailed, women are now allowed to drive and “fun”
has been legalized with the opening of cinema’s and concerts.
Some of the things he’s done can be described as the actions
of a hot head and have the potential to blow in a nasty – the War in Yemen
comes to mind. However, in many ways, the Crown Prince behaving like the
chemotherapy that Saudi Society needs. I remember telling former Saudi Ambassador
to Singapore, Dr. Amin Kurdi that the potential hot point for Saudi Society was
managing his youth, when he asked me about what I thought of Saudi Arabia.
Well, I guess Saudi Arabia has gotten its answer – the man
in charge is close in age to most of the population and while he’s hardly a
democratic reformer in the sense of the word, he is doing things that the youth
want. As stated earlier, he’s made some mistakes but the point remains, he’s
pushing through necessary changes that couldn’t be done before.
Being Crown Prince helps but there is a case to be made that
the pace of change that Saudi Arabia’s conservative society is going through
has helped by the collapse of the oil prices. Under King Abdullah, oil reached
record high prices and Saudi Arabia ran budget surpluses. The Saudi’s knew they
had to change and become less dependent of hydrocarbons but as long as the
price of oil remained sky high and the money followed, change was something you
thought about and nudged along when you felt like it. Suddenly, when the price
of oil collapsed and the money stopped flowing, the choice was to put change in
action or die.
A similar story can be found further East in India. Back in
1991, India remained a closed and very protected economy (You could call it a Trumpian
Fantasy). Suddenly, India found itself with a balance of payment crisis and the
Prime Minister of the day, Narasimha Rao and his Finance Minister, Manmohan
Singh had to do something radical.
Disruption is necessary for the human condition. While the “disruptors”
may be unpleasant or downright dangerous and incompetent, the key is to accept
that they have a role to play in the scheme of things. Not everything they do
is good – much of it may in fact be bad and require years of undoing. However,
it you learn to adapt and use disruption to drive you into action, you are
likely to end up blessing the fact that you were forced to change and act when
you did.
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